Market Review 19 – 23 2009
The previous trading week continued the developed negative US dollar dynamics. Due to the speculations regarding the intentions of the FRS to continue the politics of the low interest rates, the US dollar continued its decrease on the first day of the trading week. The EUR/USD pair managed to increase from its minimums around the $1,4826 level to its maximum mark of $1,4980. Among all the US dollar competitors, the sterling was an exception, and managed to demonstrate a decrease against the American dollar. The published information regarding the possible support of the buyout treasuries¡¦ program by the Bank of England, influenced the drop of the pound. And the GBP/USD pair decreased to the $1,6240 mark.
During the second part of the day on Tuesday rather unexpected negative news were published from the US real estate sector. The housing starts turned out to be at the level of 590 thousand against the forecast at the 610 thousand mark. Building permits value demonstrated a decrease to the 573 thousand, while the forecast was at the 595 thousand level. In addition, the producer price index dropped to -0.60%, compared to the forecast at the level of 0.00%, and the previous month value was at the 1.70% level. As a result, the stock market reacted with a decrease, and the demand for the high-risk assets dropped. Therefore, the US dollar started its correction. At the same time the M4 money supply in Great Britain, released on Tuesday, rendered an unexpected support to the sterling, by demonstrating an increase at the 0.70% level, when the forecast was at the 0.50% mark. And the GBP/USD rate demonstrated its trading day maximum above the $1.6480 level.The information, that the Central bank of Canada left the principal rate unchanged at the previous level of 0.25%, was published on Tuesday. As a result, the Canadian dollar, which has been demonstrating a sweeping growth, started to loose the previously won positions against the US dollar.
Rather strong corporate reports were published on Wednesday. In particular, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo showed high quarterly results, than the expectations, and at the same time the losses of Boeing turned out to be larger than the forecasts. As a result, the stock markets showed positive dynamics, and the US dollar happened to be under pressure again. According to the released ¡§Beige Book¡¨ report, ¡§most US economic sectors showed stabilization or moderate improvement¡¨. Therefore, the pressure on the American dollar became stronger. And due to the growth of the market participants¡¦ optimism, the high-risk assets consolidated and increased. The EUR/USD pair reached its maximum at the level of $1.5045.
The US oil inventories report, which was published on Wednesday, resulted in a lower growth compared to the expectations, and the sharp decrease of the gasoline inventories. As a result, the oil price reached the $81,87 mark per barrel. The gold rate increased and managed to reach the level of $1,061 per ounce.
During the first part of the day on Thursday the US dollar showed a minor strengthening. This dynamics was a result of the Chinese GDP publication, which turned out to be worse, than the expectations. Therefore, the market participants¡¦ interest switched from the high-risk assets to the low yielding assets. And the ECB Euro-Zone Current Account SA reported the level of -1.3 billion euro, which rendered a temporary pressure on the euro. Then the number of the initial jobless claims in the US, which was released on Thursday, happened to be higher than the forecast: 531 thousand against the expected 515 thousand. But after the release of the positive corporate reports, the American stock market demonstrated an increase, and the US dollar dropped again. And the EUR/USD rate grew to the range of $1,5030.
The US retail sales volume, which was published on Thursday, showed a considerably lower level, compared to the forecast: 0.00% change against the expected growth of 0.50%. This indicator led to the sharp drop of the sterling. Consequently, the GBP/USD rate demonstrated its minimums at the level of $1,6480.
After the announcement of the head of the Bank of Canada regarding the possible intervention aimed to weaken the national currency rate, the Canadian dollar decreased.
The Japanese yen demonstrated its negative dynamics during the whole previous week.
By the end of the reading week, the euro currency allowed the US dollar to rehabilitate a little, and the EUR/USD pair closed the week a little above the $1.5000 mark.


