Market Review 12 – 16 Oct 2009
The first day of the previous trading week demonstrated a law trading activity, since the American treasuries market and the trading grounds of Japan and Canada were closed for the reason of the national holidays’ celebration. The American dollar continued to drop. According to the received information, Central banks executed diversification of their reserves in favor of the euro and the yen. Therefore, due to the speculations, the US dollar was losing its strength as a reserve currency.
In the beginning of the week due to the weakened US dollar, the oil rate grew to the $73.50 level per barrel, and the gold rate increased to the $1055.60 mark per ounce.
On Tuesday the US dollar continued to stay under pressure, and the market participants were in a hurry to dispose of the American dollars in favor of high-risk assets, including oil and gold. After the release of the ZEW Survey Economic Sentiments index, which turned out to be at the level of 56, against the forecast of 58.8, and previous month’s level of 57.7, the euro weakened temporary, but then still returned to the dynamics of the strong growth. Consequently, the EUR/USD pair reached its maximum at the level of $1.4875, and its daily minimum was set at the $1.4760 mark.
The UK fundamental news, which were published on Tuesday, pressured the sterling. The drop of the retail price index aggravated the already negative speculations regarding the UK rehabilitation from the economic crisis. And the released information regarding the intentions of the Bank of England to increase the treasuries buy-out program, resulted in the additional pressure on the national currency. The GBP/USD pair demonstrated its minimal value around the $1.5710 mark.
The gold rate renewed its maximum at the level of $1,069.70 per ounce.
On Wednesday the US dollar continued its negative dynamics against the major currencies. Optimistic attitude of the market participants provoked sales of the dollar assets. According to the statement of the vise-president of the FRS, Donald Kohn, the American economy growth and its rehabilitation from the crises would stay below the expectations of the FRS. The corporate reports, released on Wednesday, showed positive results, which also lead to the increased demand for the high-risk assets. Intel and JPMorgan Chase & Co. presented much better reports, than the forecasts. The US fundamental news for Wednesday could not support the national currency either. Advance retail sales happened to be at the level of – 1,50%, which were much better that the expectations at the level of – 2,10%.
At the same time the Euro-zone industrial production, which was released on Wednesday, turned out to be better than the forecast. In particular the volume for August was at the mark of -15.40% , when the expectations were at the level of – 15.50%. Therefore, the euro currency received support. Therefore, the EUR/USD pair renewed its maximum and reached the level of $1.4945.
The Claimant count rate for September was at the level of August of 5%, but lower than the forecast of 5.10%. This factor rendered temporary support to the sterling.
It should be mentioned, that according to the published information on Wednesday, the Bank of Japan decided to leave the principal rate unchanged at the previous level of 0.1%.
Due to the weakened US dollar, the oil rate renewed its current year maximums. The oil price grew and reached the level of $75,17 per barrel.
Rather diverse economic news were published on Thursday in the US. The consumer price index for September turned out to be at the level of its expectations: 0.20%, but lower than the previous month. And the initial jobless claims showed a 514 thousand volume, which was much lower than the forecast of 523 thousand and the previous period level of 521 thousand. The Empire Manufacturing industrial index demonstrated a much higher result, than experts’ expectations: 34,57 against 17,50. And the Philadelphia Fed. Industrial index, on the opposite side, happened to be lower than the forecast: 11,5 against 12. Therefore, the US dollar did not receive a specific motivation impulse from the economic indicators. The corporate reports from Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase showed higher results, compared to their forecasts. Consequently, the optimistic attitudes were dominating on the market, which in turn strengthened the demand for the high-risk assets and pressured the shelter-currencies.
The high-risk assets, including the euro, continued to strengthen. The Euro-zone CPI index for September showed a lower level, than its
forecast: 0% against 0.1%. The volume in August was at the 0.3% mark. This factor rendered only a temporary pressure on the euro. And the EUR/USD pair established a maximal level around the $1.4970 mark.
Due to the speculations, that the Central bank would continue to increase the principal rate following the rehabilitation from the crises, the Australian dollar reached its 14-month maximum against the US dollar.
The published report regarding the US oil inventories supported the already growing oil prices. The oil rate renewed its maximums and reached the $77.58 level per barrel.
On Friday the US dollar managed to change the settled negative dynamics and succeeded in strengthening. Due to the drop of the stock indices, the American dollar grew and the EUR/USD pair dropped to the level of $1,4845.
REGISTER HERE For Free Forex Seminar




It’s getting harder and harder to separate the wheat from the chaff, but I recognize you’ve got some quite solid info here. Trading is risky enough without being led astray by false experts. Thank you for a very helpful blog!